Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday as traders braced for a holiday-shortened week capped by a potentially explosive jobs report. The major indexes struggled to find direction, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 wavering between slight gains and losses while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped into negative territory.
It’s a tenuous start to Q3 after a blistering first half that saw the S&P 500 surge nearly 15% higher. But storm clouds are gathering on the horizon as investors debate whether the AI-fueled rally has more gas in the tank or if a long-awaited pullback is finally in the cards.
The market finds itself at a critical juncture. Lofty valuations have priced in a significant amount of good news, leaving little room for error. Now, bulls need to see follow-through in economic data and earnings to justify current levels. Any disappointment could spark a sharp reversal.
All eyes are on Friday’s June jobs report, which could make or break the market’s hopes for a Fed pivot later this year. A cooling labor market would bolster the case for rate cuts, while another blowout number could force the Fed to keep its foot on the brake pedal. The jobs data represents a key piece of the economic puzzle, potentially providing the green light bulls are looking for – or sending stocks tumbling if it comes in too hot.
Adding to the uncertainty is mounting evidence that inflation may not be slowing as quickly as hoped. Manufacturing data released Monday showed input costs rising at the fastest pace in months, reigniting fears of persistent price pressures. The inflation genie appears to be out of the bottle, leaving the Fed in a precarious position as it attempts to thread the needle between fighting inflation and avoiding a recession.
The political backdrop isn’t helping matters either. Questions are swirling about President Biden’s political future after a terrible debate performance, while gridlock in France is spooking European markets. With the debt ceiling drama still fresh in investors’ minds, any whiff of instability in Washington could send stocks reeling.
For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. But beneath the surface, a fierce battle is raging between growth and value. Tech darlings like Nvidia that led the first-half charge are showing signs of fatigue, while beaten-down sectors like financials and energy are mounting a comeback.
The easy money appears to have been made in the first half. From here, stock picking and sector rotation will likely play a crucial role in generating returns. The rising tide that lifted all boats is receding, exposing those swimming naked as Warren Buffett might say.
As traders count down to Friday’s fireworks, one thing is clear: complacency is no longer an option. With valuations stretched and macro risks mounting, investors would be wise to buckle up for a bumpy ride in the back half of 2024.
