Stocks opened higher this morning before falling through noon. Already heightened recession fears intensified today after monkeypox – that’s right, monkeypox – stirred up bearish memories of early 2020’s initial Covid outbreak.
Earlier today, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting with a group of leading experts to discuss the rise in monkeypox cases. On May 7th, the first confirmed case in the West was reported in the UK. The number of confirmed cases has since grown to 86 over the last 13 days, with an additional 55 suspected cases (including 1 probable case) that are being monitored by health officials.
Although the UK was the first country to confirm a case of monkeypox, the majority of new infections have been found in Spain and Portugal. The US only has one confirmed case by comparison.
“I’m sure that ultimately this will be the largest outbreak of monkeypox that we’ve had outside of the endemic areas in Africa,” said Daniel Bausch, infectious disease expert and president of the American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene.
“I don’t think there’s a reason for panic. I don’t think we’re going to have tens of thousands of cases.”
World-renowned “monkeypox expert” Professor Anne Rimoin, who serves as a professor of epidemiology at UCLA, advised governments to administer monkeypox vaccines to anyone who has had close contact with infected individuals. This practice, known as ring vaccination, is a good option for health officials according to Rimoin.
And much like Bausch, she too believes that the public should not be worried.
“For your average person I would not be overly alarmed. If you have a rash, contact your health provider, a rash that is unusual or looks like monkeypox,” Rimoin said.
“If you think you’ve been exposed to somebody who has monkeypox that has this kind of a rash I would identify yourself and talk to your healthcare provider.”
Over the last week, health officials grew concerned that monkeypox could now spread in new ways, namely through sexual contact. Doctor Amesh Adalja, a prominent infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University, said that the virus “is spreading via physical touch” and potentially “through respiratory droplets” from individuals exhibiting symptoms, not all that dissimilar from Covid-19.
A number of the confirmed cases in Europe are among gay and bisexual men, too. Health officials have yet to determine the cause of this.
Relatively speaking, monkeypox is spreading like never before. It was never much of an issue in the past simply because it was very difficult to spread from person to person. That made cases extremely rare, historically, and the chances of a global outbreak were viewed as virtually nonexistent by most health experts.
A small group of dissident scientists, however, have been warning of a serious monkeypox outbreak for decades, ever since smallpox – monkeypox’s close relative – was eradicated in the late 1970s.
The smallpox vaccine incidentally provided protection against monkeypox, and when new generations didn’t receive the vaccine because smallpox cases had dwindled to zero, they were left exposed to contracting monkeypox later in life.
This likely led to a 20-fold increase in monkeypox infections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, roughly 30 years after smallpox disappeared. This, according to Rimoin, allowed monkeypox to evolve, making it potentially more transmissible in the process.
Monkeypox outbreaks of the past, while rare, have all naturally petered out. With increased odds of transmission, though, the next one could have more staying power.
“We saw monkeypox as a ticking time bomb,” said University of Washington evolutionary biologist Carl Bergstrom, who created complex epidemic simulations for monkeypox in 2003.
Like every other expert that’s been questioned about monkeypox over the last few days, Bergstrom also said that he “[doesn’t] think people should be freaking out at this stage.”
But Bergstrom also candidly qualified that statement, adding:
“I don’t trust my own gut feelings anymore, because I’m so sick of all this [expletive] that I tend to be optimistic.”
I know a handful of investors who feel the same way, especially after the S&P just officially entered a bear market several minutes ago, likely driven lower by monkeypox fears of all things.
