Yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the Wuhan coronavirus wasn’t a global health threat. It had the possibility to become one, but the outbreak hadn’t quite reached pandemic status.
The market recovered its morning losses, closing out Thursday’s trading session for a minor gain as a result.
Today, a second case was discovered stateside in Chicago, where a woman in her 60s recently returned from a trip to Wuhan; the virus’s point of origin. The infected Chicagoan’s doing well and is currently in stable condition according to U.S. health officials, but remains in quarantine so as to not infect others.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) continues to monitor new potential cases as they arise in the U.S.
“CDC believes the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time, but the situation is evolving rapidly,” Messonnier said.
“We have our best people working on this problem.”
Currently, 63 other U.S. patients are being monitored by doctors for Wuhan-like symptoms.
Messonnier believes that there will likely be more, and that identifying the virus could prove difficult given the time of year.
“We’re really working to understand the full spectrum of the illness with this coronavirus,” she said.
“The problem with this time of year is it’s cold and flu season and there are lots of cold and respiratory infections circulating.”
With an incubation period of roughly one week, there’s no telling how many Wuhan cases there truly are. Chinese citizens have overrun local hospitals in hopes of getting tested for the coronavirus, causing long lines to wrap around clinics in affected areas. The demand has been so great that, according to Weibo (a Chinese social media site similar to Facebook) users, people are getting turned away after waiting for hours; packed closely together outdoors, increasing the chances that the infection will spread further.
Thus far, out of the more than 900 infected, 26 have died, bringing Wuhan’s fatality rate to less than 3%. SARS, which ran China ragged in 2003, had a fatality rate of 11% by comparison. The ongoing 2019-2020 flu season in the U.S. boasts a much more modest 0.045% fatality rate, despite a death toll of 2,900.
The CDC estimates that there have been at least 6.4 million flu illnesses across the country. If the flu fatality rate (0.045%) was the same as Wuhan (2.8%), 179,200 Americans would have already perished.
Does that mean it’s time for investors to get worried? Not really; with more research yet to be done, and more cases to be confirmed, neither the WHO nor CDC have a grasp on the severity of the Wuhan outbreak.
For now, the coronavirus is still a bit of an enigma. Until Wuhan starts spreading faster, or its fatality rate increases, it remains a small-scale problem.
But once the WHO says Wuhan’s gone pandemic – meaning it becomes a worldwide (not just local) issue – be ready for stocks to drop.
Bulls have enjoyed a major rally since November of last year, after all. They’re looking for a reason to sell.
In the coming days, the new coronavirus might give them one
